‘Clunkers’ Probably Boosted Retail Sales: U.S. Economy Preview

The U.S. government’s auto trade- in program probably lifted retail sales in August to their biggest gain in more than three years and boosted factory output, economists said before reports this week.

Total purchases climbed 1.9 percent, the most since January 2006, according to the median of 60 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey ahead of Commerce Department figures due Sept. 15. The Obama administration’s “cash for clunkers” plan also helped industrial production in August to its first back- to-back monthly increase since 2007, economists said.

Americans flocked to auto showrooms last month to take advantage of the incentive program while purchases of other items were subdued even as evidence mounts that the worst recession since the Great Depression is ending. With unemployment forecast to reach 10 percent by the end of the year, consumer spending likely won’t lead the recovery.

“When you get to the fourth quarter, the blip from cash- for-clunkers falls out,” said Brian Bethune, chief financial economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. “The production recession is over and the housing recession is over. When you combine those two, they add up to a fair amount of traction in the overall economy.”

Excluding automobiles, retail sales probably rose 0.4 percent, economists said.

The recession “has brought on a new focus on frugality,” Mike Duke, chief executive officer for Wal-Mart Stores Inc., said last week at a conference in New York. “Clearly customers are watching every penny.” The world’s largest retailer is offering discounts to attract shoppers, Duke said.

Beige Book

In the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book business survey, published two weeks before officials meet to set monetary policy, the central bank reported “flat” retail sales in July and August and cited some auto-industry contacts as saying the cash-for-clunkers effect may be temporary. Factories, meanwhile, showed “modest improvements” in most regions, the Fed said.