Payrolls Probably Declined at Slower Pace; Unemployment Rose

A slowing in the pace of U.S. job losses last month wasn’t enough to prevent the unemployment rate from climbing to a 26-year high, economists forecast a report today will show.

Employers probably cut 325,000 workers from payrolls in July after trimming 467,000 the prior month, according to the median of 82 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The unemployment rate likely rose to 9.6 percent from 9.5 percent.

Companies from Boeing Co. to Verizon Communications Inc. continue to cut costs, signaling that a rebound in hiring will take time to develop even as Obama administration stimulus efforts take hold. A jobless rate that is projected to exceed 10 percent by early 2010, stagnant wages and falling home values mean a lack of consumer spending will curb an economic recovery.

“The labor market is still bad,” said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. “Projects that create jobs will take a long time to ramp up. People are resigned to the idea of a jobless recovery and expectations for the consumer are really low.”

The Labor Department’s report is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Economists’ forecasts for payrolls ranged from declines of 150,000 to 460,000. Job losses peaked at 741,000 in January, the most since 1949.