Canadian GDP data expected to show decline slowing
A thin digest of data releases in the coming week should do little more than confirm the pace of economic contraction in North America is declining, but could help dissipate the pall cast by the World Bank’s gloomy global outlook, economists say. The only significant release during the week of the Canada Day holiday will be on Tuesday, when April numbers for the country’s gross domestic product — the main measure of economic growth — are released by Statistics Canada. The consensus estimate is for the economy to contract at a pace of 0.1% in the month, which would make it the ninth consecutive month in which output slowed, albeit at a slower pace than the 0.3% decline registered
Analisa:
- Canadian GDP: Recession appears to be long lasting in Canada. Canada is unique in publishing GBP on a monthly basis. On Tuesday at 12:30 GMT, the monthly Gross Domestic Product for April will be released. Also this time, it’s predicted to fall, by 0.1%. This figure could surprise since the second quarter was better than the first.
- RMPI: The Raw Materials Price Index is a very important figure in Canada’s commodity oriented economy. So the price index gives a good idea of where the economy is going. After falling last month, prices are on the rise - RMPI is predicted to rise by 2% this time.
- Non-Farm Payrolls: The king of forex impacts all the currencies, and USD/CAD is no exception. After a surprise last time, NFP is predicted to make a small retreat, and fall back to a loss of 375K jobs from -345K). In previous months, the figure showed a loss of above 500K. After last week’s surprise, anything can happen. So, technical barriers might be erased after the release and then respected again. Due to the American Independence Day, NFP is published on Thursday this time. The hour didn’t change: 12:30 GMT.